The stock market fell in the economy.

[] All said that the stock market is the "barometer" of the economy, and the global market has turned sharply, reflecting the global economic downtown pressure. But specifically, Germany, compared to economic fundamentals, the stock market shrinks "exaggerated". As of February 19, the German stock market DAX index fell nearly 13% this year, but the economic fundamental did not have a significant deterioration.

On the contrary, according to the report released in February, the German economic growth is expected to speed up the fourth quarter of last year. The German Economic Research Institute of Berlin believes that the German economy is expected to grow in a quarter, higher than the previous quarter.

  Rationally-dry national culture, improved social welfare mechanism, with SMEs as the economic structure of the backbone, plus long-term relying on bank interrogation and financing, leading to the enthusiasm of Germans, especially the 2000 "New Economy" stock market bubble crack after. According to the report released in September 2014, as of July, the company listed in Germany has a total of 711, with a total market value of about billion euros, accounting for 40% of GDP, lower than the EU average, farther than US English. Waiting for the capital market. At the same time, the stock market value held by international investors occupied the half-Wanjiang Mountain of the German stock market. This may explain the reason why the German stock market is not very close to the local economy.

  For the German economy, the head of the German Economic Research Institute (DIW) macro policy department, Ferdinand, Ferdin, said that German economic growth is imbalance, close to the service sector of the consumer side will continue to expand significantly, and the industrial sector It may be dragged down macroeconomic growth.

  From a positive factor, the unemployment rate of Germany has dropped to% in January this year, and the lowest level of the same period since 1990; at the same time, the German Central Bank has greatly lowered the new year’s inflation expectation this year.

Low unemployment plus low inflation, raising the actual income and income expectations of German residents, which are conducive to private consumption. German glower market consulting company predicts that this year, German residents may have an increase of 430 euros, reaching 10,000 euros, and the total amount of private consumption expenditures in the whole year is expected to grow by 2%.

  At the moment, the refugee crisis is the biggest challenge for German society. According to local media reports, the number of Germany adopted refugees this year is expected to be about 500,000.

It should be an increase in government expenditure to the refugee crisis, but it has become a great advantage in the German economy. DIW believes that this year’s German government will increase by 15 billion euros for addressing refugee problems, directly pulling GDP more than a percentage point.

At the same time, refugee problems will also benefit the German construction industry, and a group of residents of resettlement refugees need to build.

  From the perspective of unfavorable factors, global economic growth slowdown, especially the slowdown of emerging economies, which caused external demand weakness, which makes Germany and exports continue to encounter pressure.

However, this adverse effect is offset by the euro depreciation and the internal demand of the EU. In 2015, Germany has 58% of the total exports in the EU countries. In terms of growth rate of exports, Germany has a percentage of EU countries than non-EU countries and regions. Toolerting, the industrial sector produced by "manufacturing" in Germany continues to be weak.

In January, the German manufacturing PMI dropped to the lowest value since October last year. At the same time, in December last year, the German productive industry decreased by seasonal adjustment, and the processing order decreased by the season adjusted.

  Diw believes that German industrial output is mainly due to weak external demand, especially emerging market demand. However, the number of domestic orders under domestic demand has increased, and the German industry will gradually get out of the valley.

  The "Five Wages" Committee of the German government’s economic decision-making organization pointed out that the output reduction part of the "low output" labor integrated into the German labor market.

At the same time, the service sector and digital transformation seem to have obstacles, and the active activity is relatively low. It can be said that the supply side of the German economy is urgent to "to force" relative to strong demand.

All the texts, pictures, audio and video manuscripts, and electronic magazines such as "Economic Reference News" or "Economic Reference Network" are copyrighted by the Economic Reference News. Any form publishing and playing.